The conventional understanding you get from the media is that Israel is worried that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a serious threat to the country’s existence.
Is that really what’s happening, though? Another interpretation is that Iran might want nuclear weapons not to launch any such an attack but to prevent an attack on its country–nuclear deterrence, in other words. (Of course, it’s important to note that there is currently no evidence that Iran is pursuing a weapons program.)
I was struck when I heard Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman bring up some of these ideas on NPR‘s Talk of the Nation on January 30. Bergman is no outsider critic of Israeli policy; when he appeared recently on the NewsHour (1/12/12) and was asked about the assassination of Iranian scientists, his answer was: “I don’t know. And even if I knew, I would tell you that I don’t know.”
Here’s what he said on NPR, appearing to talk about his New York Times magazine piece on Israel and Iran:
NEAL CONAN: Chris, thanks very much for the call. Israel itself possesses, what, 300 nuclear weapons we believe, maybe more? Why does not deterrence work? Israel, of course, would retaliate if Iran were to use a nuclear weapon.
BERGMAN: I would assume that–oh, I know that most of Israel’s leaders do not believe that Iran is going to use nuclear weapons against Israel. The problem is not the nuclear threat. The Iranians are not stupid. They want to live…. And I think that most leaders, and me personally as well, see that there are only a few people who believe that Iran would be hesitant enough to–sorry, brutal enough and stupid enough to use nuclear weapon against Israel.
The problem is that once Iran acquires this ability, it would change the balance of power in the Middle East. And a country that possesses nuclear weapon is a different country when it comes to support proxy jihadist movement. And these Israeli leaders afraid would significantly narrow down the variety of options from the point of view of Israel, just to quote one example coming from Minister of Defense Barak, when he said, just imagine–he told me in a meeting we had on the 13th of January in his house–said, just imagine, Ronen, that tomorrow we go into another war with Hezbollah in Lebanon like we did in 2006, and this time we are determined to take them out. But Iran comes forward and say, to attack Hezbollah is like attacking Iran, and we threaten you with nuclear weaponry.
Now, Minister of Defense Barak says it’s not necessarily that we would be threatened not to attack, and we would decide to cancel the war, but it would certainly make us think twice.
In other words, Israel’s position might be that an nuclear-armed Iran could make it harder to have future wars. That’s a very different discussion from the one we’re having now.
So for the Israelis, this isn’t about an “existential threat” from Iran, but about the threat of attack impeding their ability to attack other countries.
Damn …
That *is* real “Axis of Evil” ™ stuff.
How far will the fundamental religious right go to create Armageddon, as predicted within their beliefs? We must deny any army’s toward their desires. It would be tragic to give any credence to Iran-Israel conflict!
Congress must immediately remove any support of a conflict by denying arms shipment into the region and declaring United States armed intervention illegal.
Why is the US at perpetual war? When the war against communism ended there seemed to be a rush to find someone else – war against drugs, war against terrorism, war against the middle east, war against China or N. Korea. Why do we have to be at perpetual war? Shouldn’t the most powerful nation be strong enough to END perpetual war, not continue it endlessly? Today the media is talking about cyber war. Add that to the list of perpetual wars that can never be resolved. This leads more and more to the ideas from George Orwell’s 1984 Ministry of Peace that is always at war, and ministry of Truth that always tells lies. Frighteningly relevant and Orwellian.
What Bergman is saying, I believe, is that Israel does not want any other Middle East country to have military parity with Israel. As he says, “The problem is that once Iran acquires this ability, it would change the balance of power in the Middle East.”
Israel and the U.S. are like peas in a pod.
Yes, TH, I strongly agree with you regarding the relevancy of Orwell’s “1984” to the US regime over the past 3 decades, and especially over the past 10 yrs. When I first read “1984” back in the 1990s, it first struck me as over-the-top, and a bit too propagandistic, a little too over-written… But then during the W administration after 9/11, it seemed like the book could’ve have been a docudrama, it was almost prescient (especially the discussion of how they were allies with ‘Eastasia’ now when only a few years before they had been dreaded enemies, or vice-versa). It verges on spooky.
War seems to be a way of keeping the tribe united.
I am reading that more Americans and Israelis don’t want a war. Both nations need to pay attention to the will and needs of their own citizens. Both nations have too many other problems and raging wars will do even more damage to the planet, and of course, cause damage to ALL the people AND the planet.
Some people have suggested that if the U.S sends ships to the strait, that mossad will bomb those ships to start a war. I hope that idea is not a reality. NO nations can take having any more wars. The planet is in jeopardy and all the lives on it depend on sanity and making PEACE.
Mr. Barak…please, what value for humanity is this war? If you need a reason not to pursue this, then watch the old movie THE STING. Taking a cue from Einstein, “That imagination is more important than knowledge,” here’s a movie of a scenario that would not be a happy one.
Taking a cue too from that actor Mr. Stanislovsky and that ,”What if…” let’s make a cloak and dagger movie. Keeping THE STING in mind..what if…..The U.S has been selling all kinds of munitions to all those nations in the Middle East. What if, instead of protecting themselves, these nations were really armimg themselves for a different scenario. Remember back in 1948 when Arab nations attacked Israel? Well, what if the “sting” was on you this time? Countries don’t need nuclear weapons to destroy each other. It does seem that Israel has often gone into other nations and created havoc, and as some have suggested again, going behind the lines to create more in Iran. What if….1948 returned and a shadow sting was really going on that neither you nor the U.S even thought of? Is this scenario enough to make you rethink Peace on Earth? Or, maybe this is what you really think will happen, but nobody wins with this, nobody.
There is so much cloak and dagger that who knows what is real. What’s real? I don’t know, but if you need a reason to reconsider ending all and future wars, then please consider this made up one, based on that old movie The Sting. Please, no one has any answers, but just a lot of suspicions, mistrust. and innuendo. PEACE, people want PEACE. Please stop any more wars, because the world just can’t take any more war and neither can the people of this planet.
Dont any of you see what is wrong with this article?It takes it for granted that Iran IS working to develop the weapon.Iran has sworn on a stack of Koran’s that they do not now, or ever have had -any designs on developing a weapon.It seems as if some of you are taking it for granted that they are lying their asses off.Then some of you are even giving salient points as to why it would be a good idea to lie their asses off -and get the bomb.As a leading supplier of terrorism has it never occurred to you that oops they could loose a bomb to some terrorist front.Once Israel is gone would you be Ok with Iran being obliterated even know they did not launch the weapon.It was those sand fleas who STOLE the bomb.No you would continence patience as you always did as Israelis pulled their dead children from their bombed school buses.Purposefully targeted.I would liken this to a madman who threatens your life and your families life daily on your street being allowed to keep a bristling arsenal of weapons solely because he knows you have weapons and so he must protect himself against you.DO NOT try to guess what Iran and their insane batty,crazy as a shit house rat leadership would do with a bomb.AN DO NOT ask Israel or the world to share your laissez faire attitude to a knife at the throat in the hands of a sputtering madman.
Unfortunately, gloriana, it doesn’t matter what the vast majority of citizens on this planet want. Does our troll really think that destoying Tehran is a good idea? That bombing the life out of tens of thousands of innocent people will help? That a few nutzoid Israeli (and American) sociopaths should get to rain murder and mayhem upon a state without any rational purpose? Or, of course, zero evidence that Iran will (orhas) done anything wrong? How is it that we, the USA, gets to ring Iran, literally, with hundreds of air- and military bases, yet we screech bloody murder when the Iranians think they get to protect themselves from our (and Israel’s) predations?
I’m not asking trolls for an answer here; fuck them–what’s the point? But anybody who looks at the rationales for insane violence and war that the trolls and their masters (including the President and the Washington imbecile apparatchik) casually invoke can only conclude that madness is upon us. That trolls and Rightists in general enthusiastically agree with the man they spew out the most irrational hatred against on any given day speaks volumes to their love for insane violence, terror, mayhem, and irrrationality. Our President, in his embrace of war, anti-Constitutional acts (all in the realm of civil liberties!), and political expediency (in a savage irony, to get himself re-elected), receives as his most ardent champions the mindless, hysterical, fascist trolls who normally hate his guts when he’s actually defending the common man and asserting timeless democratic principles (again, very likely for political ends, but still). This will be the Right’s simpleton Cenotaph–they condemned, and simultaneously praised (unwittingly), the very man they heaped so much scorn upon. Outflanked to their own right, they helplessly run with the Man who ignites their most base hatreds. Fooled again, losers!
Tim as I am head Troll here(sic)let me say again that i have not heard anyone mention war with Iran except Liberal crystal ball readers.No one wants it and no one can foresee anything that would lead to one.It is not surprising though that the minute Obama listens and reacts to some very disturbing intel reports indicating Iran is lying and seeking an escalations in tensions, that you deride him for doing his job and putting America first.Yes ahead of Palestinian ,Syrian, Iranian,Taliban,and all the rest of the fun boys hopes and dreams.
As far as Obama……Your view on conservatives is hysterically funny and expected.See libs hate.You HATED Bush on every level.We do not operate that way..Obama seems a good man.I probably would like him personally if ever given the chance.If he had policies in line with my views i would like his politics.For the most part I hate his politics.Why do you see it wrong for our side to “appreciate”his taking the hard road to be honest about a danger in spite of the fact that some of his supporters would rather he stand down and let America catch it in the teeth..as they believe she deserves.?
I have long had the following opinion: only the possession of nuclear weapons can protect the survival of a nation that has displeased one of the immoral powers.
The first case was Cuba, in 1961, and it happened by accident. The Russians got the US to pledge that it would not invade the island. The second case was North Korea, in the late 80’s, and it has worked. A third case failed: it was Libya. Libya could never have gotten nuclear weapons because the population is very small and Gaddafi was a pinhead. Fourth is Iran, which is probably not seeking a military weapon out of their current program, but want to be like any number of rich countries that COULD rapidly develop the capacity quickly if they made the judgment they had to weaponize. But this strategy cannot work when the mad dogs of Israel continue to threaten, and make United States “experts” into dumbasses.
Lawrence few stupid comments on these blogs piss me off.Yours just got there.MAd dogs of Israel??Israel threatens no one.They react to attacks and what they consider real threats against their national security and very lives.They have withstood thousands of cross boarder missile attacks,invasions,terrorist bombings and have showed insane restraint.Restraint against the worlds most prize collection of terrorist ,despots,and religious manianc’s this side of the moon.All sworn to her destruction, and the anihlation of the Jewish race.All sworn to the march of Islam or death.The Jews have had the bomb for a long time.No threats to use it to convert all people to Judaism.I often wonder if things were reversed how things would now stand.Listen Arabs live and practice religious freedom in Israel.I have seen no problems there.A jew in Iran would not fare well.You are talking two different realities(and you have little grasp on reality).As far as needing protection against America how many nation states are there on this planet and how many do we claim as conquered territory on behalf of the American people?In Iraq we are leaving.in Afghanistan soon.We claim no land as our own.
Do yourself a favor.Look up Iranian newspapers(operated by their government)They offer Farsi to English translations.Read what threats they make daily.They are a hundred times worse than any threats they have made openly on the world stage.Then……….then decide they are folks you trust with a bomb.To me they are slightly better than handing a bomb to Osama bin Laden.Insane maniac’s.Better think this one through Lawrence.
‘They react to attacks and what they consider real threats against their national security and very lives.’
Yes, everyone only ever ‘reacts’ to threats, don’t they? Everyone (ie. Israel and the United States) is always just minding their own business until the evil Muslim/communist/gay-and-lesbian hordes take out their pitchforks and bay for blood. It’s not like there are established and configurations of power within either country that could ever seek to be active agents in world affairs. Well, let’s evaluate your claim about Israel not threatening anyone:
– it routinely threatens the very viability of Palestine, engaging in regular assassinations, blockades, torture, provocations, kidnappings, crackdowns, and curfews. Amnesty International and other human rights bodies are unequivocal about Israel’s appalling abuses in the Occupied Territories.
– it murdered unarmed activists and aid workers on a foreign ship
– it used cluster munitions on civilians in Lebanon
– it now THREATENS war with Iran, a country that it attacks on a regular basis by murdering its scientists and attacking its facilities
Apparently, this all translates as ‘Israel threatens no one’.
‘They react to attacks and what they consider real threats against their national security and very lives.’
But when Iran reacts in any way whatsoever to the assassination of its scientists, the bombing of its facilities, daily embargoes, infiltration of terrorists working in concert with foreign intelligence services, and daily pronouncements of war emanating from tel Aviv and Washington, this is Iran being a ‘sputtering madman’. Sure, crazy person. Time for your pills.
‘They have withstood thousands of cross boarder missile attacks,invasions,terrorist bombings and have showed insane restraint.’
Israel has invaded Lebanon four times, inflicting misery and destruction orders of magnitude worse than anything that has been done to it. It has rained death and destruction down upon wretched Gaza, which was already struggling even to survive. To say that it ‘shows restraint’ shows only your utter and total contempt for human life outside the categories of ‘Israeli’ and ‘American’.
‘All sworn to her destruction, and the anihlation of the Jewish race.’
You might be ignorant of the fact that tens of thousands of Jews live in Iran, most of whom rejected Israel’s offer to relocate. Recently, Israel was again rebuked by its coreligionists when Tunisian Jews rejected an offer to relocate. If Iran is ‘sworn’ to the destruction of the Jewish ‘race’, it’s doing a pretty piss-poor job of it. And this is the country that you want everyone to fear? Sorry, not interested.
‘A jew in Iran would not fare well.’
‘A Jew in Iran’ isn’t hypothetical, it’s real, whether or not you choose to acknowledge it.
‘You are talking two different realities(and you have little grasp on reality).’
:)
You know why I smile, don’t you? Yeah, you do.
‘In Iraq we are leaving.’
Yep, because the Iraqis didn’t want you there. Even the puppet regime you tried to force down the throats of the Iraqi people had enough of you.
‘We claim no land as our own.’
Yeah, you’re a moron. Apparently you’ve never heard of rule by proxy, sponsored coups, destabilisation programs, money funnelled to elements amenable to your control or influence, economic warfare, forced austerity programs and market penetration, and bribery. You’d do well to look into these things rather than wallowing in the sad, small-minded notion that imperialism only comes in the form of direct settler colonialism. Speaking of which! You’re a great supporter of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, aren’t you? I.e you support the dispossession of Palestinians and the theft of their land to make room for a settler program that is illegal under international law. So not only do you play dumb about the actual forms of imperialism that predominate today, you also sneak an approving wink at the old-fashioned colonialism that you want everyone to think stands for imperialism in its entirety. Apparently, you’re so stupid that you didn’t even notice another key point that should have been immediately obvious: Iran also claims no land as her own, and yet you point to an existential Iranian threat.
‘They offer Farsi to English translations.Read what threats they make daily.They are a hundred times worse than any threats they have made openly on the world stage.’
You’ve been challenged several times to provide just ONE such threat emanating from the Iranian state-owned press. So far you’ve certainly made claims that such threats exist (I’ll give you that), but you’ve failed to produce anything of import (either because you know that they don’t exist, or because the threats, if they do exist, are either too ludicrous to take seriously or are of the defensive sort – ‘We’ll attack ferociously if we are attacked first’ – that don’t jive well with the picture you want to present).
‘To me they are slightly better than handing a bomb to Osama bin Laden.’
Well, you know, Pakistan – a US ally (or it WAS a US ally) – is riddled with instability and crazed Islamists, and yet the US has never talked of attacking Pakistan. On the contrary, they’ve lent their support and money to the miserable regime in Islamabad, all to see it pissed away on these bin Laden-shielding crooks. Iran – get this – has made overtures to the US on mutual security interests, like tackling al-Qaeda. The US reaction? Nup, not interested, chappies. We’re more interested in encircling you and sponsoring terrorists to attack you. Apparently the possibility of war is more important than actual security. Who knew?
‘Better think this one through Lawrence.’
You’re kindly invited to do the same thing. There are some greasy Whoppers you urgently need to attend to. Or at least chew with your mouth closed.
Luis Cayetano has put it extremely well and is very well informed. Let the facts stand by themselves. Where I differ with Luis is that when you have the facts, it is not necessary to call people names even if well-deserved. Michael e is indeed very ignorant but he does not seem to know it. I would suggest that he read some serious factual books and study up about history and the facts, or else henceforth confine his comments to sports.